Weekly Crop Commentary - 11/21/2025

Haylee VanScoy
Director of Grain Purchasing

Grain markets drifted lower into the end of the week, with corn and wheat mostly weaker-toned bystanders following beans down. Soybeans took the brunt of the selling as funds locked in profits. SF26 now sits 40¢+ off Tuesday’s highs and is trying to cling to support at the 20-day moving average. 

The market finally got its first major Chinese soybean purchase confirmed earlier in the week. Still, traders clearly want to see much more demand, especially after Wednesday’s news that the Trump administration may delay biofuel import credit cuts by one to two years. This move would favor refiners and weigh on the farm and biofuel lobby. That headline added another layer of pressure to an already fragile bean market, making this week feel like classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact.”

Reminder that next week is a short week due to the holiday! If you need to walk through target offer plans, end-of-year marketing ideas, or lock in your interest for January deferred payments, don’t hesitate to reach out to your local merchandiser!

Wishing you all a wonderful Thanksgiving next week!

Zach Dennis
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)

Harvest is just about wrapped up! There were areas where the crop was better than expected, and others where it wasn't very good. Because the crop was better than expected, it has led to an oversupply in the marketplace, causing a volatile price action in the bean market.

China is buying beans again! They have purchased at least 14 cargoes for December/January delivery. This is the largest U.S. bean purchase in over 2 years. With both Brazil and Argentina being competitive with the U.S. on beans, the market is cautiously optimistic that China will purchase the promised 12 MMT. With the volatility in the market, price risk is elevated. It would be a good idea to look at different contract ideas for the 2026 marketing year. This could help margin management in the long run.

I hope you have a great Thanksgiving!

Zane Robison
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)

It looks like the last of the harvest trucks are starting to fall off locally, so I want to thank everyone for another safe and successful season.

Markets, on the other hand, must have gone on an early holiday. We’ve seen losses for three straight days. December corn was on a solid run but couldn’t hold last week’s gains. We briefly pushed above the 200-day moving average before sliding back into the $4.25–$4.30 range we’ve lived in for the past three months. March corn followed the same pattern: pushing to price levels not seen since early July, only to give it all back in the last few sessions. Until corn can confidently close above key resistance, rallies remain spotty.
One bright spot: China committed to buying 132,000 MT (4.85 million bushels) of wheat. Could that open the door for future corn export business?

Soybeans kicked off the week strong. January futures set new highs, and we even saw glimpses of $11.50 Jan-delivery beans. But the past three days have brought pressure. Even so, we’re still trading about 50¢ higher than a month ago. The recent Chinese purchases are welcome, but they don’t fundamentally change the balance sheet, as last Friday’s WASDE made clear. Hard to say where we head from here. How much bullish news will it take to set new highs? If the last three days are any indication, quite a bit.

Wishing everyone a fantastic Thanksgiving with family and friends!

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

The market has obviously run out of steam that gave us the end-of-season rally. Today, December corn futures hit a four-week low, while January soybean futures hit a two-week low. We have seen additional bean sales to China this week, but they still have a way to go to meet the goal they promised by the end of the year. I think the market was over-optimistic, and we’re seeing the results of an overbought market.

This afternoon, we have some basis improvements on corn for Jan-delivery and beyond for what’s in your bin. What are your pricing goals for those bushels? We can put in target offers or look at contract alternatives that suit your needs.

If you still have unsettled grain, next week is your last chance to defer payment to January 2026 and still earn a little bit of interest on it. Be sure to talk to your local branch or merchandiser by Wednesday to get that processed.

Thank you all for a successful harvest, and I wish you all a Happy Thanksgiving!

Morgan Hefner
Grain Merchandiser, Nashport (Region 5)

The week opened on a strong note, led by a rally in January beans. Monday’s session brought over a 30¢ gain on beans, with wheat tagging along. Corn, however, struggled to join the momentum as it has seen gradual declines throughout the week.

On Tuesday, the USDA confirmed that China had purchased 792,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans. While the announcement added a layer of support, it wasn’t enough to build on Monday’s momentum. By Wednesday, the USDA had announced an additional 330,000 metric tons of soybeans, also purchased by China. By the second half of the week, trade quieted and markets showed little reaction.

At the beginning of the week, the USDA released its first crop progress report in quite some time due to the government shutdown. This showed Ohio at 93% corn harvested and 96% beans harvested. These numbers came out fairly close to Ohio’s average, corn even slightly ahead.

With the holidays coming up, it’s easy to slip into rest mode. This will be a great time to start considering plans for next year!

Wishing you all a Happy Thanksgiving!